What Italy's draw with Portugal means for the Azzurre's EURO 2025 hopes

The Italy Women's National Team is not yet certain of a place in the quarter-finals of the 2025 European Championship after a dramatic 1-1 draw against Portugal.

The Azzurre headed into the second Group B match knowing that a victory over Portugal would mean qualification for the last eight with a game to spare. In what became a tense and attritional match at the Stade de Geneve in Switzerland, Cristiana Girelli seemed to have come up with the magic when her stunning strike put Italy ahead with 20 minutes to play.

Portugal rallied, though, and found a deserved equaliser in the 89th minute. A wonderful pass from Giada Greggi and a late run from Barbara Bonansea seemed destined to end in a 97th-minute winner for Italy, but a deflection wide proved to be the final action of the match.

Azzurre Girelli — Italy celebrate a Cristiana Girelli goal. [@Azzurre_En]

Andrea Soncin opted to go with the same 11 players who started the opening day win over Belgium, which raised some eyebrows given the performance in that match was far from perfect.

With the contest going stale in the second half and both sets of players clearly aware that a goal in either direction would be huge, Soncin opted to bring Michela Cambiaghi into the fray. The assumption was that the 35-year-old Girelli would make way after playing the whole 90 minutes against Belgium, but it was Sofia Cantore instead.

That proved to be the right call, as Girelli soon came up with the first real bit of quality that the game had seen. When waiting for support on the edge of the box, the Juventus striker opted to shift the ball to her right and curled a perfect shot into the top corner. It sparked wild celebrations, and Italy knew they were on the brink of qualification.

With 20 minutes to play, Portugal had to go for it. They thought the late equaliser had arrived from a set-piece but replays found an offside, but the real equaliser did come thanks to some questionable defending and a scuffed finish from Diana Gomes.

Azzurre Caruso — Italy Women's Arianna Caruso. [@AzzurreFIGC]

What do the Azzurre need to qualify from Group B at EURO 2025?

There is no getting away from the fact that Italy were minutes away from not needing to get anything at all from the final Group B match against Spain.

Now, the situation is very different. With Spain having qualified on six points thanks to a 5-0 win over Portugal and a 6-2 win over Belgium, Italy now sit second with four points. Portugal have one point in third, whilst Belgium are out.

The tie breaker in EURO 2025 groups is as follows:

Most points won in matches between those teams
Goal difference in matches between those teams
Goals scored in matches between those teams
If teams still have an equal ranking, the above criteria will be reapplied exclusively to matches between the remaining teams to determine rankings
If teams are still level then goal difference across all group matches is used
Then goals scored in all group matches
Then Disciplinary record
Then higher position in the overall European qualifiers

Azzurre Girelli Linari — Italy Women's Cristiana Girelli and Elena Linari celebrate. [@AzzurreFIGC]

Should Italy get a draw or even beat Spain, then they are through and Portugal cannot progress. What appears more likely is that Spain get all three points against Italy, and Portugal can go level on four points with Italy if they beat Belgium.

Based on the above criteria, that would mean that goal difference becomes the tie breaker. Portugal lost 5-0 to Spain so that doesn't bode well for them, but if they can beat Belgium handily, a big win for Spain over Italy could see goal difference swing back in Portugal's favour.

What is certain is that Italy's fate is still in their own hands, but the draw against Portugal does feel like a missed opportunity for Soncin's side.